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LONDON, Oct 12 (Reuters) – World shares rose while the dollar and bond market borrowing costs held steady on Thursday, ahead of key U.S. inflation data that will feed the hotly-contested debate on where global interest rates are now heading.
The week’s sharp escalation of Middle East tensions ensured the mood remained cautious although Europe’s shares shuffled to a 3-week high after a 1.75% jump by Tokyo (.N225) and 2% leap in Hong Kong had helped Asia do the same overnight.
Wall Street futures , were pointing to a fifth straight day of gains for the first time since June too, while the dollar was hovering near a two-week low after Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday had shown caution emerging among its rate setters.
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News that Central Huijin Investment, a Chinese state fund, raised stakes in the country’s big four banks had also boosted confidence in the broader Asian market as Hong Kong’s heavyweight Hang Seng index (.HSI) jumped 2.0%.
China, however, has also issued a notice prohibiting domestic brokerages and their overseas units from taking on new mainland clients for offshore trading, which will restrict capital outflows, Reuters reported on Thursday.
The recent buoyancy in markets also owes much to comments from Federal Reserve officials suggesting U.S. interest rates – which tend to drive global borrowing costs – may have finally peaked.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Wednesday said higher market interest rates may help the Fed slow inflation and allow the central bank to “watch and see” if its own policy rate needed to rise again or not.
Waller has been among the most vocal advocates for higher interest rates to fight inflation, and his view added weight to similar statements this week by Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan.
European trading saw the dollar drifting near a two-week low, but the yen was still under pressure at 149.15 per dollar, just a whisker away from the 150 level that could spur intervention from Japanese authorities.
The minutes of this month’s ECB meeting showed the decision to hike its interest rates again had been a close call, although the euro barely budged on the news.
Capital Economics markets analyst Jonathan Petersen said the dollar’s broad-based rise against most currencies this year left it “somewhat overvalued” and most other G10 currencies “undervalued”.
“We expect the greenback to stay strong as the U.S. and other developed markets slip into recession, and gradually weaken after that,” Petersen said.
